AFL – The Run Home – Who Makes Finals from Here?

The race for the AFL top 8 has been blown wide open over the past two rounds.

Adelaide and St Kilda looked set for a finals campaign until suffering two disappointing losses, whereas Carlton and GWS look to be storming home like Chautauqua in the 2017 TJ Smith Stakes.

We analyse the chances of every side below:

How The Run Home Works:

Each game will be assessed as if the two opposide sides were to play four times and then calculating wins into a decimal system.

For example:

Port Adelaide vs Collingwood = This is likely a 50/50 match, therefore both sides would get .5 of a win

Melbourne vs Richmond = Melbourne likely to win 3/4 times, therefore Melbourne = 0.75 – Richmond 0.25

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AFL Predicted Final Ladder

1. Collingwood – 19.25 Wins
2. Port Adelaide – 17.75 Wins
3. Brisbane – 16.75 Wins
4. Melbourne – 16 Wins
5. Geelong – 13.75 Wins
6. Western Bulldogs – 12.75 Wins
7. Essendon – 12.5 Wins
8. Carlton – 12.25 Wins
9. GWS – 12.25 Wins
10. Richmond – 12 Wins
11. St Kilda – 11.5 Wins
12. Adelaide – 11 Wins
13. Gold Coast – 10 Wins
14. Sydney – 9.75 Wins
15. Fremantle – 9.25 Wins
16. Hawthorn – 5.5 Wins
17. North Melbourne – 2.75 Wins
18. West Coast – 1.5 Wins

Round by Round Predictions:

Rd 19

Essendon (0.5) vs Western Bulldogs (0.5)
Richmond (1.0) vs Hawthorn (0)
Carlton (1.0) vs West Coast (0)
Brisbane (0.75) vs Geelong (0.25)
Fremantle (0.5) vs Sydney (0.5)
Port Adelaide (0.5) vs Collingwood (0.5)
GWS (0.75) vs Gold Coast (0.25)
Melbourne (0.75) vs Adelaide (0.25)
St Kilda (1.0) vs North Melbourne (0)

Rd 20

Collingwood (0.75) vs Carlton (0.25)
Geelong (1) vs Fremantle (0)
Western Bulldogs (0.5) vs GWS (0.5)
Gold Coast (0.25) vs Brisbane (0.75)
Essendon (0.5) vs Sydney (0.5)
Adelaide (0.5) vs Port Adelaide (0.5)
Hawthorn (0.25) vs St Kilda (0.75)
Richmond (0.25) vs Melbourne (0.75)
West Coast (0.5) vs North Melbourne (0.5)

Rd 21

Western Bulldogs (0.5) vs Richmond (0.5)
Essendon (1) vs West Coast (0)
Adelaide (0.75) vs Gold Coast (0.25)
Hawthorn (0) vs Collingwood (1)
Geelong (0.75) vs Port Adelaide (0.25)
GWS (0.75) vs Sydney (0.25)
North Melbourne (0) vs Melbourne (1)
St Kilda (0.25) vs Carlton (0.75)
Fremantle (0) vs Brisbane (1)

Rd 22

Collingwood (0.5) vs Geelong (0.5)
North Melbourne (0) vs Essendon (1)
Sydney (0.75) vs Gold Coast (0.25)
Brisbane (1) vs Adelaide (0)
Carlton (0.25) vs Melbourne (0.75)
West Coast (0) vs Fremantle (1)
Hawthorn (0) vs Western Bulldogs (1)
St Kilda (0.5) vs Richmond (0.5)
Port Adelaide (0.75) vs GWS (0.25)

Rd 23

Collingwood (0.75) vs Brisbane (0.25)
Richmond (1) vs North Melbourne (0)
Gold Coast (0.25) vs Carlton (0.75)
GWS (0.75) vs Essendon (0.25)
St Kilda (0) vs Geelong (1)
Adelaide (0.5) vs Sydney (0.5)
Western Bulldogs (1) vs West Coast (0)
Melbourne (1) vs Hawthorn (0)
Fremantle (0) vs Port Adelaide (1)

Rd 24

Brisbane (1) vs St Kilda (0)
Carlton (0.75) vs GWS (0.25)
Essendon (0.25) vs Collingwood (0.75)
Geelong (0.75) vs Western Bulldogs (0.25)
Hawthorn (0.25) vs Fremantle (0.75)
North Melbourne (0.25) vs Gold Coast (0.75)
Sydney (0.25) vs Melbourne (0.75)
Port Adelaide (0.75) vs Richmond (0.25)
West Coast (0) vs Adelaide (1)

Best Bet:

Odds brought to you by NEDS

AFL Premiership Multi Builder:

Geelong – Top 8 – $1.20
Western Bulldogs – Top 8 – $1.45
Essendon – Top 8 – $1.65
Melbourne – Top 4 – $1.20

Odds – $3.44